The Uncertain Future of Counter Strike's Drop System

By: Matthew Merkel - Maestro's In House Trader

Within the last few years of CS2's development, Valve has fundamentally changed the way players can obtain new items. With the advent of the Armory and the new Genesis Terminal, players and investors are all raising questions into how new items will be generated and the stability of the future of CS2's economy.

Notably, Valve silently removed the Fracture case from the active drop pool and placed it into the rare drop pool. This has received coverage and players are already flocking to purchase their cases for fear of missing out. However, these new developments mentioned above have prospective users scratching their heads with the future of the active drop pool.

The Evolution of Item Distribution

Historically, players have obtained items freely through weekly in-game drops which have been supplemented by additional means like operations, major tournaments, and other special means. Cases in this active pool have been dropped and opened in the billions, and have been supported by mass case farming schemes. These schemes were well-oiled machines that had been perfectly tuned to generating their creators virtually free guaranteed revenue. However, since the addition of the Armory, CS2 has only received a single "normal" active duty case being the Kilowatt case. What may be the most prospective addition to the game is the new Genesis Terminals, which act almost entirely differently from the cases we have come to understand.

Understanding the Genesis Terminal

What is most important to take note of regarding the Genesis Terminals is its replacement of an active duty case and its place as a weekly in-game drop. Most who comment on this, myself included, view the Genesis Terminal as a way for Valve to "future-proof" its game against ever-increasing regulations surrounding games with loot box mechanics. However, there is no way to disprove at this time that the future collections added to CS2 may continue to only be in the form of terminals. This is important for many reasons, as the Genesis Terminals differ from the traditional case in many ways. The terminals cost no money to "open" and only ask you to spend Steam wallet balance to redeem skins if you choose to. Unlike with cases, there is a use-case for the terminals in which the item is consumed and no item is actually produced from it. Also notably, the price of the items in the terminal are fluid. Some suggest that the prices are reactive to how many users "accept" or "decline" the offers given to them by Booth the arms dealer. The more the community declines an offer, the price declines; the more the community accepts an offer, the price increases. Others hypothesise that the prices are simply compared to the lowest listed price on the Steam Community Market. Interestingly, the Genesis Terminal does not contain any rare special items like knives or gloves. This carries massive connotations and contributes significantly to the negative feedback the community has been giving on these terminals.

Community Reception and Concerns

Speaking of, the negatives of the Genesis Terminal seem to outweigh any positives it may have. Players have been outspoken in their disdain for this system. Why be offered a rare covert skin just to have to fork over $1,000 in steam balance to actually own it. Most players do not have the capital set aside in their steam wallet to even obtain rare items if they get offered to them in the first place. This differs from the $2.50 players spend to open a case for a chance to own items of exceeding value. Speaking of, the lack of rare special items in this collection tanks the community interest and thus the value of this collection and its items. All of these aspects contribute to an item that is going to produce much less money for Valve than the traditional cases. This begs the ultimate question as to why the Genesis Terminal is now a mainstay weekly in-game drop that will most likely be dropping for years to come.

The Armory's Role in the New Economy

While this answer is most-likely simple "future-proofing" against potential regulations, Valve seems to be making steps away from the drop system it has had set up for years. Its other most recent cases have been only accessible by redemption in the Armory. The Armory is unique, because players buy the means to access the armory and then obtain items through stars they earn through actual play time in the game. This skirts a few steps in the gambling process and keeps the armory somewhat legally ambiguous. However, these cases in the Armory are indistinguishable from past cases once obtained and opened.

What This Means for the Future

Valve is going to do as little as possible to rock the boat on their money-printing gambling machine that is CS2. However, this does not mean that they are going to continue their old ways if it means the eventual derailment and destruction of their cashcow. Valve, through their recent actions and additions to the game, show that they are not afraid to fundamentally change things if it increases the lifespan of Counter Strike's economy. This all begs into question if the "extinction" of original cases may actually become a reality. If Valve continues to only release traditional cases behind the paywall of the armory and change all in-game weekly drops to legally safe case replacements, the traditional cases and method of obtaining items may be in its twilight era. It would be hasty to make all of these assumptions assuredly until a trend can be seen, as there is nothing stopping Valve at this point from releasing another normal case into the active drop pool.

Conclusion

The new and old aspects of item obtaining deserve thought and investigation. Based on one's personal understanding and prospective outlook on the CS2 economy, many different opportunities can be seen. Some may be bullish and see this as a potential to stock up on rare or currently active cases. Some may be bearish and decide this is the time to dump their holdings. Regardless, is it always important to see where we have come from and where we may potentially be going. Only with the power of hindsight can we really understand where we are in the history of the Counter Strike economy, but the implications of the Genesis Terminal, Armory, and the current active duty pool are all intertwined and integral to each other.