Understanding Signs of Market Manipulation

By: Matthew Merkel - Maestro's In House Trader

Counter Strike's market is a unique free market that allows any user to build wealth through its cosmetic items. However, like other free markets, Counter Strike's economy is susceptible to those willing to manipulate it. With recent events, namely the "Evil Geniuses" controversy, the topic of market manipulation is fresh on many peoples' minds. The purpose of this article is to help raise awareness of the characteristics manipulated items often share when capital is being pumped into them. We can use the 2021 Stockholm Evil Geniuses Holo sticker and see what characteristics made it a "successful" pump and dump manipulation.

Identifying Pump and Dump Schemes

First and foremost, one should be able to tell immediately if an item is being pumped. The telltale sign is an item that seemed to have little to no growth over many years that suddenly spikes in a short period of time. Discerning whether or not sudden price spikes are manipulation or reasonable hype can be based on whether or not there is a clear reason for the increase. Many items will be removed from active drop pools and people will flock to purchase them; this is explainable. Some items may be attached to players or teams that announce their retirement and players will aim their attention that way; this is explainable. A game update may make a once-obsolete weapon viable in the in-game meta; this is explainable. You need baseline knowledge of the game and its community to quickly assess if something is being manipulated. If there is no logical reason it is most likely foul play.

The Role of International Markets

Something to note is the source of most manipulations within the market in the current day. The sentiment that most manipulations come from China is not inaccurate. Many Western players put most of their focus into playing and enjoying the game and having a "hobby" of collection or trading skins. Some make it their part- or full-time job, but most play Counter Strike to enjoy the game. China, on the other hand, is less inclined to play "Counter Strike" and more inclined to play the "Counter Strike Market." First-person shooters are not as popular in China as they are in Western audiences. So why is it always China that seems to create these market movements? This can be attributed to the people of China's limited access to unregulated markets. Counter Strike offers users in China the only method of a less monitored market which can lead to a legitimate source of income. Many other forms of income are heavily monitored and foul play can result in criminal punishment. This means some people in China might be more willing to use large sums of money in order to exploit the CS2 economy and make quick, life-changing profit. So, for us who are trying to keep a keen eye on manipulations to avoid being made a loser, it is important to keep a pulse on what the community is saying is happening in China.

The Evil Geniuses Case Study

Back to Evil Geniuses, what made them choose this sticker? How did they make a sticker that historically was only worth $1.00 shoot all the way up to $400.00 in a single month? The sticker choice itself is not as important as the characteristic the sticker carries. They did not pick Evil Geniuses because of its holographic design; it could have been any Stockholm holo (However, there may be a tongue-and-cheek joke regarding the sticker's name). They picked this sticker due to its characteristics. One, it is a sticker from a discontinued but relatively modern sticker collection with a fixed supply. Two, a single item had a low entry price. Three, the market cap of the item was low enough that manipulators could own the majority.

Quietly, for a few months before the pump, the manipulators purchase thousands of these stickers. Once they owned the majority, they then hiked up the price. Unaware buyers then attempted to become a part of the hype train, continuing to drive the sticker's price higher. The manipulators would then buy back in at a higher price with the profits they obtained earlier in the pump and continue the cycle. This continued until the price was too high, major holders sold, leaving unlucky buyers holding the bag as the manipulators collected their reward.

Protecting Your Investments

Can they do this to any item? Should I invest in everything, since anything could be the next pump-and-dump scheme? What is most imperative is that you do not become one of the biggest losers of these schemes. It is always tempting to join in on the pump but there are tight-knit groups of manipulators who use insider information and will always be ahead of the masses. These schemes continue to this day with many rare Factory New playskins being manipulated to prices hundreds of percent higher than what they have been for years. Looking at the manipulators' track record we can see that they do not blindly manipulate any item. They target rare items that have been out of the active drop pool for years and have relatively small supplies and market caps. So no, they will not manipulate any random, old item; the items must meet their predetermined criteria in timing, supply, and rarity.

Conclusion

The best case scenario for someone uninvolved in these schemes is discovering their item has been manipulated, sell it at a high price, and keep the profits or buy the skin back later. Trying to partake in these schemes has caused many people to lose money they couldn't afford to lose. As with all investments in Counter Strike there is risk, but some schemes seem too good to be true because they are. It is imperative that readers educate themselves on what the "normal" market looks like so that when something abnormal happens, they are not taken advantage of.