Inside the Market: Alkem1st's CS2 Skin Trading Guide

Alkem1st (@Alkem1stCS), a full-time CS2 skin trader since 2021, breaks down what he'd buy with $10,000 today, his biggest wins and losses, and where he sees the market heading over the next five years. His take: discontinued cases are still the safest buy, and the market needs another year or two to fully recover from 2025's trade-up changes.

Photo via: Alkem1st's LinkedIn

For some, skins are just a cosmetic look to their favorite buy-round weapon of choice. For others, they have become a market of their own, one where timing, knowledge, and risk management can be worth thousands of dollars.

Few people understand that market better than Alkem1st. A well-known figure in the skin community, Alkem1st has spent years buying, selling and analyzing skins, while building a reputation around his market knowledge and sharp takes on everything from individual items to major changes affecting the wider economy.

His journey into skin trading started in a fairly familiar way: a friend unboxed a knife during a matchmaking session in 2021. What followed was a realization that he had been overpaying on skin marketplaces - and an introduction to the Danish trading community that would eventually turn a side hustle into a full-time occupation.

We sat down with Alkem1st to talk about how he got started, his biggest successes and mistakes, what he would buy with $10,000 today, and what he expects from the CS2 skin market over the next five years.

Getting Started in the CS2 Skin Market

How did you get started with Counter-Strike, and more importantly, with skin trading?

I started buying skins after a friend of mine opened a knife from a case while we were playing some matchmaking back in 2021 and quickly found out that I had been paying super high prices on these bot sites and decided that this was not something I wanted to lose money on. I Joined the Danish CS facebook community and started trading there for some extra pocket money and then one thing just took the next and all of a sudden it was my job. 

At what point did you realize that skin trading could be your main occupation?

When I saw how "easy" it was and how big the community is. The hardest thing is just building your name, but if you're consistent enough that comes automatically with enough time in the market.

Wins, Losses, and Misconceptions

What is your favorite success-story from your time in the market?

When the market pumped super hard in May of 2025 I managed to time the exact top. Sold off most of what I had and within 24 hours the market started crashing back down and I bought back into the same items for 30-50% cheaper than what I had sold them for a day prior.

If you had $10,000 to invest in CS2 skins today, what would you buy and why?

Boring answer, but discontinued cases.

What's one skin or skin category you think is currently undervalued and overvalued?

Tough to say, investment-wise I would always say discontinued cases are a good buy, so I guess that would make them undervalued. For overvalued I would honestly say that the Gen 1 gloves are still too expensive after the trade-ups update even though they are down like 70-80%.

What's the biggest mistake you see new traders and collectors make when buying skins?

For traders it's probably diving in too deep. From time to time you will see new traders buy more skins than they can afford so when the time comes to pay their sellers after the trade protection period they either have to delay the payment or take a loan with someone else. I remember a story where someone had borrowed thousands of dollars from a Chinese trader without disclosing this to them.

What is the biggest misconception people have about expensive CS2 skins?

I mean, for regular people it's obviously the classic "so does it make you any better in game?", but in the skins scene it's mostly that anyone who owns a dragon lore or an expensive knife-glove combo is automatically a millionaire - this is far from the truth.

Alkem1st (left) at HLTV Awards (Source: Twitter)

Reading the Market: When to Buy and Sell

How do you decide when a skin is worth buying and when it's time to sell?

There are certain indicators in the market - strong buy orders are a good sign for the health of a certain skin. When the market was in a steep uptrend back in march-april-may of 2025, I used the amount of buy orders and how close they were to the listing prices to time when I cashed in on the gains. By doing this I think I might have hit the all-time highest sale of a regular Factory New Dragon Lore on YouPin at 118888 CNY. I'm happy to be proven wrong if anyone has a higher one!

What's the most expensive skin you've ever bought, and what made you willing to pay that much?

Probably some Pandora's Box or Hedge Maze MW when they were at their peaks. I can't remember exactly when I paid but it was just a standard cash deal where I got it at a % I was happy with and could sell it on for a profit. As for playskins it would be the previously mentioned FN Dragon Lore - bought it because it's the king of skins, nothing comes close to wielding the Dragon on the server (and at the time it was a nice investment).

Where the CS2 Skin Market Is Headed

Where do you think the CS2 skin market will be in five years?

I think we still need a year or two for the market to stabilize from the trade-up changes implemented throughout the last year. The market is very clearly in a very "hungover" state currently and has been for months. The market needs to re-establish the trust the community had in it which takes an incredibly long time to do when you keep in mind the pre trade-up update, the market had built trust with the community over the course of 12 years.

In 5 years I think we will have a healthy market, but whether or not it can reach its previous heights depends on what Valve does with the case-economy and if they can manage to grow the player base substantially.

Final Thoughts

The skin market has changed dramatically since Alkem1st first entered it, and if there is one thing his story makes clear, it is that experience matters.

Markets move quickly, and the difference between a good trade and a bad one is rarely as simple as the skin itself. For anyone looking to get deeper into CS2 skins, understanding the market is ultimately more valuable than chasing the next big item.

And with the market still finding its footing, the next few years could be some of the most interesting yet.

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