Type
Weapon Case
Listings sourced from waxpeer — updated in real time.
1 listing found
Last price updated 55m ago
Weapon Case
Base Grade
Weapon Cases
Dreams & Nightmares Case Key
Active Drop
67 items
Opening one returns €1.32 in expected value against a €0.94 weapon case — about 1.4× its price. That is an average across many openings, not a forecast for one: most of it sits in rare drops the majority of openings never produce.
| Rarity | Items | Chance | Per item |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare Special | 50 | 0.26% | 1 in 19231 |
| Covert | 2 | 0.64% | 1 in 312 |
| Classified | 3 | 3.2% | 1 in 94 |
| Restricted | 5 | 16.0% | 1 in 31 |
| Mil-Spec | 7 | 79.9% | 1 in 9 |
Dearest drop: Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Phase 2) at €1,861.66. Cheapest: P2000 | Lifted Spirits at €0.03.
Every skin here belongs to The Dreams & Nightmares Collection.
The Dreams & Nightmares Case is the product of a Valve-run community art contest rather than an in-house design pass, and the whole case reads that way. The finishes lean surreal and illustrative — melting geometry, dreamscapes, heavy saturation — where a typical case mixes camouflages and hydrographics. That is the reason its Covert pair sits so far above the rest of the case in price: they are the two skins people actually wanted from the contest, and the case is the only way to get them.
The odds on this page are Valve's published per-tier figures, not an estimate. Mil-Spec blues make up just under 80% of openings, and each successive tier is roughly five times rarer than the one below it, down to the rare-special pool — the knives — at 0.26%. Because the tiers are fixed, the interesting number is not the chance itself but what sits behind it: a case whose Covert pair is expensive has a very different expected value from one whose Coverts are cheap, even though both share the identical odds.
The expected-value figure above multiplies each tier's per-item chance by the cheapest live listing for every item in that tier, summed across the whole drop table. It is an average over many openings. Most of the value is concentrated in outcomes the majority of openings never reach, so a typical single opening returns well below the figure while a rare one returns far above it. Treated as an average it is honest; treated as a per-opening forecast it is not, and the arithmetic here is published so you can draw your own conclusion rather than ours.
If a specific finish from this case is what you are after, buying it outright is almost always cheaper than opening for it, and the drop table above links every skin to its own price comparison so you can check that in two clicks. Opening makes sense when the case is cheap relative to its expected return, or when the appeal is the opening itself. Where cases are concerned those are two genuinely different purchases, and it is worth being clear with yourself about which one you are making.